Market Activity & Views

11/10/2006

Dow's high doesn't impress everyone...


The post-election stock market may have closed at a multiyear high Wednesday, but not everyone is impressed. The ones that have bearish reputation, should be ready to extend diplomatic recognition to a new bull market.

Much as you could like or dislike election's results, I think/hope that in this instance that this new flat world that produces massive transparency is producing a fine balance when this country can have a system in which the needs of the customer, employee, and shareholder can all benefit.

The U.S. still has a super bullish relative valuation of the stock market trying (and succeeding) to keep the trend of the market moving upward. At the same time, monetary conditions are wavering from extremely bearish to only very bearish.

That doesn't sound like a lot, but for those of us craving to be bullish, it sets our tentacles vibrating - urging us on to crave a little more. ... We are continuing to keep our 10% cash, erring on the side of caution by expecting "one more" correction.

The stock market, contrary to public perception, is rather indifferent to divided or unified governments. While stocks have returned an average of 11.81% during times of unified governments, the returns are only slightly different, 11.37%, during times of divided government.

The significance of a divided or unified government is, however, apparent in bond total returns. During times of unified government, long bonds return 2.18%. When the government is divided, thus ensuring some level of gridlock, bonds return 8.82%.

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